Sea Surface Height

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Originally uploaded by Mark Ciccarello.

Here is the surface height anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico as of two days ago, generated on the NOAA/AOML site. (This is not quite the same sort of graph as in the previous post, but oh well). I think it's clear why it intensified so much as it moved through the Keys.

Rita is now a category 5, and the fourth-most intense storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. Even so, the weather service says further strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.

From the looks of this data, it would seem that the worst-case scenario would be if Rita strikes the coast of Texas around Galveston, where it will have warm water the whole way. If it tracks a little further south it may deintensify before striking land.

There are of course a lot of atmospheric factors to consider, but I'm professionally disposed to believe the oceanographic ones are the most important. From what little I understand, however, there is some evidence that this is actually true for category 4 and 5 storms.