My Election Prediction

OK, it's time to put my prediction on the record. Based on some indications of weakness in the polls lately for Kerry I'm predicting that Bush will win the popular vote narrowly. But based on some strength in swing states, and the history of undecideds going for the challenger, I think Kerry will win the electoral college.

My credentials? None really. I did win a contest on MSNBC back in 1996, being the only person to exactly guess how many electoral votes Clinton and Dole would receive. (MSNBC was just getting started then, and they were somewhat embarassed that I, a Microsoft employee at the time, had won their contest). What did I win? Two things: jack and squat.

Does it really make a difference who wins? Probably not. But I dislike Bush enough that I want to see him humbled, or even humiliated, by losing. Of course it would be better if he lost the popular vote too. On the other hand, it would be a wonderful irony if he lost on the electoral college technicality.

I also think a case can be made that it would be bad for the progressive cause if Kerry won. He's sort of a douchebag, after all. His lack of charm is such that the first time anything goes wrong he's apt to become a very unpopular president. And he'll start off with half the population against him, a Republican congress, a giant deficit, the likelihood of another terror attack, and a military quagmire in Iraq. If I were him, I might just pass on the whole thing.

On the other hand, who knows how radical Bush will become in a second term, when he doesn't need to worry about reelection? I think this is a serious concern, actually.