Things We're Not Talking About: Stoic Acceptance of Stupidity

"I am not talking about stoically accepting organizational stupidity and performance incompetence with a "what, me worry?" smile." -- from The Leadership Secrets of Colin Powell.

Grandma & Jennifer

I went out to see my grandmother yesterday, along with my dad, uncle Ross, aunt Dodi and cousin Kelly. She has improved a lot since Friday, and I don't see any reason to think that she's in immediate danger.

Afterwards I stopped by Terri's house and met my new adopted niece, Jennifer. She's 3 and had been trick-or-treating, I guess for the first time. She's extremely cute and outgoing. I found out from Terri that they're probably going to move to Idaho this summer, because Ed has found a job there. He's currently driving out there to work, and will be shuttling back and forth for the next several months.

As for the election, polls seem to be showing that Bush has a slight advantage in swing states. Kerry's hopes seem to rest on two factors: that undecideds go to the challenger and that turnout by Democrats will be unusually high. But the fact that some states that should be easy Democratic wins (and where Gore won big) like Hawaii, New Jersey and Minnesota, remain close is a very, very bad sign it seems to me.

Grandma

I found out from my father this evening that my grandmother had trouble breathing and was taken from the nursing home to the hospital. They treated and released her, but when she went back to the nursing home she fell and hit her head and was taken back to the hospital. She's out again, but pretty much talking out of her mind, and dad doesn't seem to think she's going to live much longer. I plan to drive down and see them tomorrow, after I finish teaching physics at "Super Saturday." My uncle Ross is in town.

The election bullshit has reached a fevered pitch. Not just jackass versus douchebag, but all the local races. And since two of the three network television stations are actually based in Greenville, I get ads for South Carolina races too. As if anything that happens in South Carolina has the slightest significance anywhere else. I bet if the Union had just let South Carolina leave after they fired on Ft. Sumpter, nobody would have noticed and the whole Civil War thing wouldn't have happened.

Sox Win

The Red Sox just won the World Series. Has any team put up as little fight in a 7-game series as the Cardinals? I've never seen it. The Sox scored in the first inning of all four games, and lead at the end of 35 out of 36 innings of the series (the Cards never lead).

Results

I got my thermo exam #2 back yesterday and didn't screw it up as badly as I'd feared: got a 92. On my abstract algebra exam I didn't do as well as I'd hoped: 80. So with roughly half my credits or a little less in my classes, I have a solid A average in thermo, a weak A in real analysis, a high B in abstract algebra and a low A in classical mechanics.

I'm not too worried about real analysis, since there will probably be a massive curve at some point. Thermo I need to work hard to avoid slippage; the material is definitely getting harder. Similarly classical mechanics. There may be a few charity points in abstract algebra coming, but realistically it may hard to avoid an A- or B+. It's very difficult and abstract (surprise!) material that I have a problem generating much interest in, and I'm taking it independent study on top of it.

The Red Sox are currently beating the Cardinals 3-0 in the 4th inning of the 4th (and maybe final) game of the World Series. I can't believe how little fight the Cardinals are putting up. They haven't led at any point in any of the 4 games so far. They haven't threatened in any way.

On the Other Hand

Every time I start thinking that it doesn't really matter who wins the election, I come across something that either frightens or appalls me. This, which I found a few days ago, does both:

In the summer of 2002, after I had written an article in Esquire that the White House didn't like about Bush's former communications director, Karen Hughes, I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House's displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn't fully comprehend—but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency.

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

—Ron Suskind, "Without a Doubt," in the Oct. 17 New York Times Magazine

This is really frightening. It describes an administration that's not only out of touch with reality, but proud of being out of touch with reality -- contemptuous, actually, of people who aren't. The arrogance is absolutely breathtaking, and scary as hell.

Election

It's one week until the election, and I've gotten to the point that I couldn't give a flying fuck who wins. I just want it over.

Bush is a disaster, of course, but as I posted previously, I think Kerry would be a disaster too. Not in terms of policy, where he could be nothing but an improvement, but in terms of popularity and leadership. He could wind up seriously damaging the progressive cause merely by being such a all-around douchebag. Jimmy Carter, chapter 2.

Unfortunately, I don't think my wish for it to all be over will be granted any time soon. Voting complaints and lawsuits are being filed all over the country already. Candidates have been urging people to vote absentee where possible, and after the 2000 debacle Congress required states to accept "provisional ballots" for people who try to vote, but aren't on the rolls for whatever reasons. Obviously the legitimacy of those ballots will take time to sort out.

Bush has been looking stronger in the polls recently, with a 3 or 5 percent lead nationally, but this election is very strange. There's lots of interest out there, and new registrations are at record levels, so it's very hard to know what the turnout might be like, and the polls, it seems to me, could be wildly off.

Gas

I paid $2.039 for gas today -- over $2 for the first time, as far as I remember. 29 dollars to gas up my little Wrangler, and the tank wasn't even empty. If this keeps up I'm going to give up driving.

Movie Review: Friday Night Lights: B

As a reward for getting everything finished this week, I treated myself to a movie: Friday Night Lights, which was pretty decent. It was based on an actual story of a high school football coach in Texas, played by Billy Bob Thornton, and the team he took to the state championship game in 1988. In a way it was depressing, though. Apparently life in many west Texas towns revolves around the local high school football team. Consequently, absurd pressure is placed on 17-year-old kids to win. As portrayed in the movie the entire town of Odessa Texas seems to consist of nothing but men who used to play football and who split their time about evenly between crying over their lost glory and making their sons' lives miserable by living through them.

At any rate, I finished my abstract algebra take-home and got back my classical mechanics exam, which I didn't screw up quite as badly as I had feared (89).

Red Sox Win!!!

And, more importantly, the Yankees lose!

Maybe this is a good omen for Kerry?

Red Sox

The Red Sox are currently beating the Yankees 8-1 in the top of the 7th inning, with two on and one out. If they win this game they'll be the first team ever to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series. I've watched no baseball at all this season, but I'm rooting for them.

This morning's thermo exam probably didn't go as well as I would have liked. I may have done OK and I don't think it was a total disaster. I've got my take-home for abstract algebra, and it doesn't look too awful, though there's a proof of something called the Third Isomorphism Theorem (using the First Isomophism Theorem) that is a little, well, abstract.

Out from Under

I'm almost out from under my workload (temporarily, of course). Since Friday I finished problem sets for classical mechanics, abstract algebra and real analysis. I finished my corrections for the last real analysis exam. I did a take-home exam in classical, which took most of my weekend. I did a research presentation for the National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center and wrote up another research summary for NCUR.

Tonight and tomorrow I have only to study for an exam in thermodynamics and a take-home exam in abstract, do a problem set for abstract and one in my one-hour problems course. Some time before Friday I also have to do another classical mechanics problem set.

OK, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a little on the "out from under" thing.

My Election Prediction

OK, it's time to put my prediction on the record. Based on some indications of weakness in the polls lately for Kerry I'm predicting that Bush will win the popular vote narrowly. But based on some strength in swing states, and the history of undecideds going for the challenger, I think Kerry will win the electoral college.

My credentials? None really. I did win a contest on MSNBC back in 1996, being the only person to exactly guess how many electoral votes Clinton and Dole would receive. (MSNBC was just getting started then, and they were somewhat embarassed that I, a Microsoft employee at the time, had won their contest). What did I win? Two things: jack and squat.

Does it really make a difference who wins? Probably not. But I dislike Bush enough that I want to see him humbled, or even humiliated, by losing. Of course it would be better if he lost the popular vote too. On the other hand, it would be a wonderful irony if he lost on the electoral college technicality.

I also think a case can be made that it would be bad for the progressive cause if Kerry won. He's sort of a douchebag, after all. His lack of charm is such that the first time anything goes wrong he's apt to become a very unpopular president. And he'll start off with half the population against him, a Republican congress, a giant deficit, the likelihood of another terror attack, and a military quagmire in Iraq. If I were him, I might just pass on the whole thing.

On the other hand, who knows how radical Bush will become in a second term, when he doesn't need to worry about reelection? I think this is a serious concern, actually.

I May Go Insane

I have so much to do at this point that it's depressing me -- and I can't even work up the motivation to get started.

I spent almost the entire day finishing a classical mechanics problem set. A problem set, I might add, that my professor was nice enough to make due while we also have a take-home midterm exam out, due Monday, which I have therefore been unable to start. I also have a problem set due tomorrow in abstract algebra that's only about half done. I need to get ready for a brief research presentation I'm doing tomorrow afternoon. Then I found out this evening that we almost missed a deadline tomorrow for another research proposal, so I have to write that tonight. At some point this weekend, in addition to the classical exam I have to do corrections to my last real analysis exam, due Monday. That leaves me plenty of time to study for my abstract algebra and thermodyamics exams Wednesday, and also do the assignment for the "problems" course.

Much worse than the workload, though, is the general feeling that I'm not really on top of the material in my courses, particularly in abstract alegbra, and that I don't have time to catch up.

Another Debate

The third and final presidential debate is going on. So far fairly even (and pretty much a snooze), though Bush seems a little nervous. He smiles too much and makes wisecracks about Kerry that probably go over well with his usual handpicked GOP audiences, but this audience has been instructed not to laugh or respond, even if anything Bush was saying were funny, which it isn't. Jokes that don't get laughs aren't ever good, but smark-aleck remarks that don't get laughs are worse.

An hour in, and Kerry hasn't laughed or even cracked a smile yet, aside from the introduction.

One weird moment: Bush bashed Kerry for supporting amnesty for illegal aliens, but I'm quite sure that was something that Bush proposed.

Bush's Bulge

Letterman mentioned the Bush Bulge rumors in his monologue, then played a game called "guess the bulge" where Rupert had a bulge under his jacket and contestants had to identify it. (It was a t-bone steak).

I'm feeling fairly wiped out. I finished up my thermodynamics homework this evening, but didn't have the initiative to do much of anything else. Tomorrow I get a classical mechanics take-home exam, which will probably kill my weekend. I have plenty of abstract algebra and real analysis to work on, as well as a classical homework set. And this one-hour "Problems in Mathematics" course continues to be a thorn in my side

Springsteen II

Lots more people showed up for the finale: John Mellencamp, the Dixie Chicks, James Taylor, Jackson Browne (OK, I didn't say interesting people), some rappers I didn't recognize, Eddie Vedder, Bonnie Rait.

Springsteen did go into a preaching thing at one point, and talked about voting Bush out. He also mention Christopher Reeve's death yesterday and said he was a friend, though he mispronounced his last name ("Reeves").

Springsteen

I've been watching this National Anthem for Change Tour -- a live broadcast from Washington DC. Earlier Dave Mathews and REM (I assume) were on, but right now Springsteen is playing with John Fogerty "It Ain't Me." Over-orchestrated, as usual with Springsteen (at least four guitars -- the two principals, Little Stevie and Nils Lofgren) but not bad.

Now they've brought out Michael Stipe and he's doing "Because the Night" with Springsteen. Springsteen is doing a guitar solo too.

Wire Update

The story is now on the BBC site. Bush's tailor says it's some sort of "pucker" along the seem.

"Georges de Paris, who made the suit worn by Mr Bush, said the bulge was accentuated when the president crossed his arms and leaned forward."

Are people generally aware that Bush has his suits custom-made by a guy named (oh, the irony!) "Georges de Paris?"

Now I'm thinking about all the rapid eye-blinking Bush was doing while Kerry was talking during the second debate. Was this a subconscious attempt to shut out what he was seeing and concentrate on what Karl Rove was telling him? I should ask a psychologist if that's likely.

What's the Frequency, Karl?

Rumors are circulating on the Internet that Bush was wired for sound duing the first two debates. It's gone so far that the White House is having to deny it. It sounds too unbelievable to be true, but it does explain all the weird pauses before Bush started answering questions.


Note what looks like a rectangular bulge and some sort of wire coming off of it. The photo is not doctored, as the bulge is clearly visible in the TV footage. A similar bulge appears in footage of the second debate. So far the White House reaction has been pathetic, suggesting it was a "wrinkle" and trying to laugh it off. Andrew Card said "maybe his suit had a little lump in it or something." Huh?

They've also confirmed that Bush was not wearing a bullet-proof vest at the debate.

Surreal

I just flipped on the TV and 48 Hours has a special on about an old friend/fraternity brother of mine, Mike Blagg, who was convicted last Spring of murdering his wife and daughter. (Actually his daughter's body was never found, so he was only tried for the wife). It's really sort of surreal seeing the interview with him after all these years, especially in this context. This is a guy I lived with for a couple of years and saw regularly for four.

I don't really know why this case never became as famous as the Scott Peterson case, because they're very similar. On the strength of the fame of the case, Peterson got a celebrity defense attorney, and his case for some reason is taking something like six months to try. Mike got public defenders and a trial that lasted a few weeks. He was convicted and sentenced to life without parole.





The program ended with a note on the screen that said Mike was beaten by other inmates shortly after arriving in prison.

Timber

OK, apparently Bush owned a small part of a timber company that paid him $84 years ago, and Kerry's point was that this would have qualified him as a small business owner. This seemingly had some relevance to the debate, but I was too busy blogging to follow it. Apparently not too many other people (including Bush) understood it either.

Overall, Kerry did better than Bush, but Bush's expectations were so low coming out of the first debate that he probably managed to exceed them.

On the other hand, CNN's unscientific Internet poll is again showing a huge Kerry victory, 79% to 19%, with only 2% calling it even this time.

Second Debate

The second Bush-Kerry debate is going on. This time instead of standing at podiums and taking questions from Jim Lehrer they're standing on stage and taking questions from the audience.

Bush seems less flustered and confused than last time, but is relying far too much on throwing around the liberal label and saying "it's just not credible" to everything Kerry says.

Just now Kerry accused Bush of owning a timber company, and Bush denied it. WTF?

Bush, Donald Trump and the British Aristocracy

I've been thinking lately about Dumbya and how he got elected President (well, sort of) and whether it might be better if we had a real aristocracy, like Britain.

Somebody once pointed out that the British aristocracy does serve a useful social function. Here in the United States, our lack of an official aristocracy leads to absurd delusions that a de facto one does not exist. We therefore assume that the U.S. is much more meritocratic that it really is, and attach undue moral righteousness to economic outcomes. We lionize morons like Donald Trump, who is constantly running businesses into the ground and, a friend of mine once calculated, would actually be far richer than he is if he'd merely invested the money he inherited from his father in mutual funds. And we blame the poor for their own condition.

Meritocratic fantasies are much tougher to sustain in a society like Britain, thanks to the class structure, so the British have more sympathy for the down-and-out, and consequently the U.K has a better social safety net. And though Prince Charles has as little ability as Trump, and one day will have as much money, nobody will be fooled into thinking he earned it.

Note also that when the halfwit son of Britain's head of state finally does inherit the office, at least they won't actually allow him to run the country. Would that were the case here.

The Democrats have their Kennedys, but the GOP is particularly royalist. There have been 14 presidential elections in the past 52 years. 13 of those 14 have featured either Richard Nixon, Bob Dole or a George Bush on the ticket in either the presidential or vice-presidential slot. Fortunately, Nixon was disgraced and Dole never reproduced, but somehow the Bush clan must be stopped.

Would we be better off if we took a few families and made them nobility, or even royalty? Gave the Bushes and the Kennedys titles and money, but forbade them to hold an office with real political power?

Of course it's been pointed out that the U.S. does have an aristocracy of sorts: our celebrities. Unfortunately they don't serve quite the same instructive social function as does Britain's inbred collection of bluebloods, because many celebrities got to be celebrities by having talent, even if the rewards for being able to act, sing or hit a major-league curveball are ridiculously disproportionate. Also, celebrities can and often do run for political office.

I Hate Math

I feel like I'm in fucking grad school already.

I've spent the entire weekend working on math and physics. Literally I haven't done a single thing since about 6:00 Friday night other than eat, sleep and work on homework and a take-home exam in real analysis. Most of that time has been spent working on a single analysis proof of something that's fairly obvious, but it took two whole pages, and about half a dozen different flawed versions before I finally got it right. I think. And I still have homework in abstract algebra and thermodynamics piled up and waiting for me.

I've been so out of it that I forgot to go to this "Physics is Phun" class I'm supposed to be helping teach for a bunch of middle schoolers. I got roped into doing this thing by a physics major who wanted to do it, and made it sound like the whole curriculum was laid out. ("It's just an hour and a half on Saturday mornings"). However, once I looked at it, the material was total shit. Next week it's my turn to lecture, so in addition to everything else I have to come up with a lecture and a project on optics and visual phenomena for a useless bunch of ankle-biters by Saturday.

I'm getting very grouchy.

GRE

This week is fall break, and we have Wednesday-Friday off. I decided it would be a good time to take the general GRE, so I've signed up to do that on Friday. I want to take another practice test or two before I do it and I've been too busy. I should have time Wednesday or Thursday. I'm shooting for an 800 on the math, which is easier to do than it sounds because the scale is pretty low on the math section, which is just SAT-level algebra, geometry, etc.

The math subject GRE is a different story. It's November 13 and I seriously need to review for it. It's only required for one program: MIT/Woods Hole, which is a real pain to apply to. (For example, they want you to list every class you've ever taken along with the textbook that was used for it!) It's "recommended" for a couple of others.

Poll Results part II

Real polls have been released. Newsweek shows 61% think Kerry won the debate, versus 19% for Bush. LA Times has is 54% Kerry, 15% Bush. More interestingly, Newsweek, which had Bush ahead overall by 54% to 43% after the GOP convention now shows Kerry leading by 47% to 45%. LA Times has Kerry up by 2% as well.

You certainly wouldn't have known it from the post-debate news coverage, most of which seemed unwilling to admit the obvious: that Bush looked defensive, hesitant, befuddled and frustrated. This is another case of the media bending over backward to avoid seeming liberal that they wind up being functionally conservative.

It went so badly for Bush that I wonder if there's a danger of expectations being lowered for him to the point that he can't fail in the next two debates. That happened with Reagan in 1984 when he seemed like a confused old man in the first debate, then came out and did OK in the second, which was good enough.

In other news this week, Mt St Helens had a very minor eruption the other day and they say there will probably be a larger one. Jay Leno is stepping down from the Tonight Show in favor of Conan O'Brian...in 2009. More beheading videos released from Iraq. Crude oil closed above $50 a barrel for the first time.

Mt. St. Helens, on Friday

The Media -- the Dregs of Society

Something occured to me while watching the debate the other night. The first question was to Kerry, and it was along the lines of "could you do a better job fighting terror than Bush." Of course, he answered yes.

Recently Dick Cheney has taken a lot of heat in the media for saying that electing Kerry would increase the chance of another terrorist attack. I hate Cheney with a white-hot passion, but this is a bum rap.

What does it mean when Kerry claims that he could fight terror more effecively than Bush? It means that he would decrease the likelihood of another attack. What other possible standard for "better job" could there be?

Now it's a fact that if X is less than Y, then Y is greater than X. (I realize not everyone has the benefit of my advanced level of mathematical training, but you can trust me on this). If, as Kerry implies, the odds of an attack would be lower in a Kerry administration, that must mean that they would be comparatively higher under another Bush administration. Apparently it's unacceptable to say that things would be more dangerous with your opponent in charge, but perfectly OK to say that they'd be safer with you in charge, even though they mean precisely the same thing.

This rhetorical hairsplitting is the sort of thing politicians and their operatives like to engage in for obvious reasons, but it's ridiculous when the media plays along with the "controversy." I don't particularly think the media are biased, since it goes both ways. They're simply dumber than stumps.

Journalism and mass communications are among the easiest majors on any college campus, and they attract some of the stupidest people. That's a fact. Then there's a further weeding-out process after graduation, wherein the few smart journalists realize what a horrible mistake they've made and change careers. What we're left with is the dregs of the dregs. And the TV journalists are the dregs of the dregs of the dregs. (Local, as opposed to national, TV journalists are dregs to the fourth power, and small-market TV journalists like the ones in Asheville are dregs to the fifth).